《水文科学杂志》刊登“非洲南部有观测及无观测流域水文预测的不确定性”

作者：E. Kapangaziwiri, D.A. Hughes, T. Wagener

刊物：水文科学杂志，2012年，57卷第5期，1000-1019页

关键词：不确定性，水文模型，无观测流域预测，先验参数估计，区域约束，非洲南部

摘  要：在非洲南部，需水增加需要足够水量的淡水资源。流域模型是对河川径流及其他水文变量进行连续评估的标准化工具。然而，模拟结果的精度通常难以定量，历史观测数据的缺乏也阻碍了模型的评估。水文评估中定量化研究的不确定性会对预测的价值和可信度产生影响。将一个独立的模型框架应用于有观测和无观测的流域，旨在分析合并的一致性以及对水资源评价的不确定性。在无观测流域进行不确定性估计是通过两个策略实现的：使用局部搜索方法的先验模型对反应流域物理特征的参数进行估计，并使用一个区域性行为来确定流域特性，以约束模型输出。我们对南非数据稀缺地区的两个信息来源进行比较。结果表明，这两种方法都能减少不确定性，但是，它们的相对价值又是不同的。

Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Authors：E. Kapangaziwiri, D.A. Hughes, T. Wagener

Journal:Hydrological Sciences Journal，Volume 57, Issue 5（2012），1000-1019

Key words: uncertainty,hydrological modelling,predictions in ungauged basins,a priori parameter estimation,regional constraints,southern Africa

Abstract:The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

原文链接：http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2012.690881