《Water Resources Management》刊登“动态可计算一般均衡模型与中国水资源影子价格的敏感性分析”

作者：Jing He, Xikang Chen, Yong Shi, Aihua Li
刊物：《Water Resources Management》，2007年，21卷第9期，1517-1533页
关键词：水资源；影子价格；动态；可计算一般均衡；投入产出分析；敏感性分析
摘要：本文创新性地提出了基于全国水资源投入产出平衡表的动态可计算一般均衡模型，并计算了中国的水资源影子价格。与以往方法不同的是，动态水资源影子价格主要取决于水的稀缺程度，而且可以反映中国平衡增长过程中的边际长期价值。本文首先回顾了投入产出动态分析及收费公路理论的基本概念；其次，阐述了用于计算影子价格的动态可计算一般均衡模型（DCGE），包括定义及算法；第三，基于DCGE模型计算了中国1949-2050年的水资源影子价格。此外，对计算水资源影子价格的DCGE模型进行了敏感性分析。对中国政府而言，动态水资源影子价格包括两层含义：（1）项目评估。每个大型工程必须进行国民经济评价，而影子价格是国民经济评价的前提。（2）水资源市场价格。本文认为，应按照动态影子价格方法重新计算国内市场的水资源影子价格。此方法也可用于解决不同国家或不同自然资源的类似问题。

Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model and Sensitivity Analysis for Shadow Price of Water Resource in China

Authors:Jing He, Xikang Chen, Yong Shi, Aihua Li
Journal: Water Resources Management, Volume 21, 2007, Issue 9, pages 1517-1533
Key words:water resource; shadow price; dynamic; computable general equilibrium; input output analysis; sensitivity analysis
Abstract:A novel dynamic computable general equilibrium model based on National Water Resource Input Holding Output Table is proposed to calculate the Shadow Price of water resource in China. Unlike previous approaches, the dynamic Shadow Price of water resource is largely based on the scarcity extent and can reflect the marginal long-term value in the balanced growth path of China. Firstly, the basic concepts of dynamic Input Output analysis and Turnpike Theory are reviewed. Then, Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) is elaborated to calculate the Shadow Price, including the definition and computer-based algorithm. Furthermore, Shadow Price of water resource in China from 1949 to 2050 is calculated based on the DCGE. Also the sensitivity analysis of the DCGE for Shadow Price of water resource in China is presented. Dynamic Shadow Price of water resource has two meanings for China government: (1) Project evaluation. Every large-scale project in China must have national economic evaluation and the dynamic Shadow Price is prerequisite for national economic evaluation. (2) Market price of water resource. A lesson from this paper is that Shadow Price of water resource in domestic market of China should be rewritten according to the dynamic Shadow Price. In addition, the parallel computations approach could also be used to solve these problems in different countries or for different natural resources.

原文链接：http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-006-9102-7
翻译：杨立疆；审核：翟家齐