《Water Resources Research》杂志刊登的“用于印度金奈市城市供水动态分析的水文-经济建模方法”

作 者：Veena Srinivasan，Steven M. Gorelick，and Lawrence Goulder
刊 物：《Water Resources Research》, 2010年, 46卷, 1-19页
关键词：中美洲城市；政策分析；需求；流域；地下水；管理；资源；市场；尺度
摘 要：本文讨论的是一个非常具有挑战性的话题，即发生在印度金奈——一个发展中国家城市中的水资源问题，目的是模拟系统行为并诊断出水危机的主要原因。为此，我们开发了一个水-工程-经济耦合模型，模拟复杂的城市多水源供水系统。模型整合了城市供水系统，包括：水库的水源、供水（自来水）的输配、城市建成区的地下水、水务市场的供求与价格、消费者行为等。消费者与多水源的关系，以及引起的经济和物质影响被量化。模型使用了2002~2007年的水与经济社会数据率定了参数。模型模拟反映出城市地表水供水系统的孱弱，同时体现出地下含水层的调节作用，以及消费者在长期干旱过程中的保障性投入。

A hydrologic‐economic modeling approach for analysis of urban water supply dynamics in Chennai, India

Authors：Veena Srinivasan，Steven M. Gorelick，and Lawrence Goulder
Journal：Water Resources Research, 2011, Volume 46, w07540:1-19
Key words：Central-American cities; Policy-Analysis; demand; basin; groundwater; management; resource; markets; scale
Abstract：In this paper, we discuss a challenging water resources problem in a developing world city, Chennai, India. The goal is to reconstruct past system behavior and diagnose the causes of a major water crisis. In order to do this, we develop a hydrologicengineering‐economic model to address the complexity of urban water supply arising from consumers’ dependence on multiple interconnected sources of water. We integrate different components of the urban water system: water flowing into the reservoir system; diversion and distribution by the public water utility; groundwater flow in the aquifer beneath the city; supply, demand, and prices in the informal tanker‐truck‐based water market; and consumer behavior. Both the economic and physical impacts of consumers’ dependence on multiple sources of water are quantified. The model is calibrated over the period 2002–2006 using a range of hydrologic and socio‐economic data. The model’s
results highlight the inadequacy of the reservoir system and the buffering role played by the urban aquifer and consumers’ coping investments during multiyear droughts.

原文链接：
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/229429889_Click_Here_A_hydrologiceconomic_modeling_approach_for_analysis_of_urban_water_supply_dynamics_in_Chennai_India/file/d912f500c3d3565011.pdf
翻译：陈翔；审阅：陈康宁