《WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH》杂志刊登的“气候变化对埃塞俄比亚塔纳湖流域水文气象的影响”

作 者：Shimelis G. Setegn, David Rayner, Assefa M. Melesse, Bijan Dargahi, and Raghavan Srinivasan
刊 物：《WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH》, 2011年, 47卷, w04511, 1-13页
关键词：尼罗河上游；流域；土地利用；水文响应；水资源；模型产出；流域尺度；不确定性
摘 要：在未来数十年，气候变化将有可能导致尼罗河流域国家可利用水资源减少。本文利用全球气候模式GCMs的输出结果来研究埃塞俄比亚塔纳湖流域的水资源对气候变化的敏感性。首先，从15个GCMs中整理出逐月降水和温度数据。尽管所有模式都显示温度将升高，但对降雨的预测很不一致。其次，我们针对日降水和气温对径流等水文要素的影响进行了研究，为此，通过修改历史数据来生成新的气候序列，以表征GCMs中的气候变化，并用SWAT模型来计算水文要素变化。SWAT模型在进行自身率定和验证时使用的流量资料就是塔纳湖四条支流的流量。在特殊排放情景——A2情况下，全部的9种GCMs中，有4种得到的结果显示在2080-2100年间的年均径流量在统计意义上显著下降。研究结果表面，人为的气候变化在未来一个世纪内确实能够改变塔纳湖流域的水量平衡关系，但目前的GCMs对于具体变化趋势分析支撑还十分缺乏。

Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Authors：Shimelis G. Setegn, David Rayner, Assefa M. Melesse, Bijan Dargahi, and Raghavan Srinivasan

Journal：WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2011, Volume 47, w04511:1-13
Key words：Upper Blue Nile; river-basin; land-use; hydrological responses; water-resources; model output; catchment scale; uncertainly
Abstract：Climate change has the potential to reduce water resource availability in the Nile Basin countries in the forthcoming decades. We investigated the sensitivity of water resources to climate change in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia, using outputs from global climate models (GCMs). First, we compiled projected changes in monthly precipitation and temperature in the basin from 15 GCMs. Although the GCMs uniformly suggest increases in temperature, the rainfall projections are not consistent. Second, we investigated how changes in daily temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in streamflow and other hydrological components. For this, we generated daily climate projections by modifying the historical data sets to represent the changes in the GCM climatologies and calculated hydrological changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model itself was calibrated and validated using the flows from four tributaries of Lake Tana. For the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario, four of the nine GCMs investigated showed statistically significant declines in annual streamflow for the 2080–2100 period. We interpret our results to mean that anthropogenic climate changes may indeed alter the water balance in the Lake Tana Basin during the next century but that the direction of change cannot be determined with confidence using the current generation of GCMs.

原文链接：http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010wr009248.shtml
翻译：陈翔；审阅：陈康宁