《Agricultural Water Management》刊登“评估水资源配置策略的水电经济综合模型框架 I:模型开发”

作者：Biju George, Hector Malano, Brian Davidsonb, Petra Hellegersc, Luna Bharatid,Sylvain Massuele

刊物：《Agricultural Water Management》，2011年，98卷第5期，733-746页

关键词：水资源配置；水电经济；Krishna流域；穆西河

摘要：本文描述了一个可用于水资源规划和管理并能进行水资源配置及利用多决策情景分析的综合模型框架。建模方法，即将网络分配模型和社会成本效益经济模型进行整合，从而对流域或子流域水资源配置多政策情景进行自然和社会评价。从水文学角度看，最初人们利用地表水、地下水模型评估地表水、地下水资源可利用量。此后，利用水量分配模型协调地表水、地下水资源量计算值。从经济学角度看，最初分配给系统内不同用水户的水资源量是估计得出的。此后利用这些分配水量进行社会成本效益分析，以估计不同时空情景下水资源配置的经济影响。这种方法十分有效，因为其可让决策者既考虑水资源配置的自然尺度又考虑水资源配置的经济影响。随着人们逐渐将水资源视为商品并根据其自身价值进行配置，这种模型相比其他模型的优势会更为凸显。本文给出的模型已在印度Krishna流域的子流域—穆西河流域进行了应用。结果表明，穆西河的用水竟争非常激烈，未来转移至城市用水的农业用水很可能增长，但是，不同农业区目前的用水量却很少。

An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies I: Model development

Authors: Biju George, Hector Malano, Brian Davidsonb, Petra Hellegersc, Luna Bharatid,Sylvain Massuele

Journal: Agricultural Water Management, Volume 98, 2011, Issue 5, pages 733-746

Key words: Water allocation; Hydro-economics; Krishna basin; Musi

Abstract: In this paper an integrated modeling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modeling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a social Cost Benefit economic model, to evaluate the physical and economic outcomes from alternative water allocation policies in a river basin or sub-basin. From a hydrological perspective, surface and groundwater models were first applied to assess surface and groundwater resource availability. Then an allocation model was applied to reconcile the calculated surface and groundwater resources. From an economic perspective initially the value of water allocated to different uses in each demand centre within the system was estimated. These values were then placed in a social Cost Benefit Analysis to assess the economic consequences of different allocation scenarios over time and space. This approach is useful as it allows policymakers to consider not only the physical dimensions of distributing water, but also the economic consequences associated with it. This model is considered superior to other models as water is increasingly being seen as an economic good that should be allocated according to its value. The framework outlined in this paper was applied to the Musi sub-basin located in the Krishna Basin, India. In applying this framework it was concluded that competition for Musi water is very high, the transfer of water from agriculture to urban users is likely to grow in future and the value of water used in different agricultural zones is very low.

原文链接：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377410003835