《Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics》杂志刊登“一个预估地震区结构失效风险的有效方法”

作者：Laura Eads, Eduardo Miranda, Helmut Krawinkler, Dimitrios G. Lignos

刊物：《Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics》，2013年，42卷第1期, 25—41页

关键词：失效；基于性能的抗震设计工程；概率风险评估；年平均频率；解聚集作用；增量动力分析法

摘要：在基于性能的抗震设计工程中，失效概率的评估是计算要求的一部分。本文旨在研究计算中所涉及的不同方面的年平均失效概率（λc），并且提出了一个对于地震区结构侧移失效风险评估的有效方法。通过对年平均失效概率的解聚集，发现年平均失效概率是由地震动强度对应的失效破坏曲线的下半部分决定的。当失效破坏曲线和年平均失效概率的不确定性作为地震动数量的函数并用于计算时被量化。结果表明：应用少量的地震动进行结构的失效风险评估时会导致不真实的结果。本文提出的方法显著的降低了计算量和评估中的不确定性。

An efficient method for estimating the collapse risk of structures in seismic regions

Authors: Laura Eads1, Eduardo Miranda, Helmut Krawinkler, Dimitrios G. Lignos

Journal: Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Volume 42, Issue 1, pages 25–41, January 2013

Key words: collapse; performance-based earthquake engineering; probabilistic risk assessment; mean annual frequency; de-aggregation; incremental dynamic analysis

Abstract: Assessing the probability of collapse is a computationally demanding component of performance-based earthquake engineering. This paper examines various aspects involved in the computation of the mean annual frequency of collapse (λ_c) and proposes an efficient method for estimating the sideway collapse risk of structures in seismic regions. By de-aggregating the mean annual frequency of collapse, it is shown that the mean annual frequency of collapse is typically dominated by earthquake ground motion intensities corresponding to the lower half of the collapse fragility curve. Uncertainty in the collapse fragility curve and mean annual frequency of collapse as a function of the number of ground motions used in calculations is also quantified, and it is shown that using a small number of ground motions can lead to unreliable estimates of a structure's collapse risk. The proposed method is shown to significantly reduce the computational effort and uncertainty in the estimate.

原文链接：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eqe.2191/abstract