《Water Science and Engineering》刊登“金沙江流域降水量和植被覆盖率对径流和产沙量影响的建模与分析”

作者：Jun DU , Chang-xing SHI , Chen-di ZHANG

刊物：《Water Science and Engineering》，2013年1月，第6卷第1期，44-58页

关键词：降雨量；植被覆盖率；径流；沉积量；基于自适应网络模糊推理系统（ANFIS）；金沙江流域  

摘要：本文主要研究金沙江流域降水量和植被覆盖率对径流和泥沙沉积量的影响。以回归分析的结果作为输入量研究了自适应网络模糊推理系统的适用性，并将其用来模拟年径流量和产沙量。相关性分析显示：径流量和产沙量与降水量指数成正相关，而与植被覆盖率指数成负相关。逐步回归的结果显示：每年的降雨量是影响径流变量的最主要因素，其次森林覆盖率，二者对径流变量的贡献率分别是69.8%和17.3%。对于产沙量，降雨侵蚀是最重要的影响因素，其次森林覆盖率，二者对产沙量的贡献率分别是49.3%和24.2%.ANFIS 模型对于径流预测具有较高的精度，相对误差小于5%，但是对于产沙量的预测精度较低，降雨量和植被覆盖率只能解释部分产沙量变量，应该将包括人为活动在内的其他影响因素充分考虑到其中。

Modeling and analysis of effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff  and  sediment yield in Jinsha River Basin

Authors：Jun DU , Chang-xing SHI , Chen-di ZHANG

Journal：Water Science and Engineering，2013, 6(1): 44-58

Key Word：precipitation; vegetation coverage; runoff; sediment yield; adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS); Jinsha River Basin

Abstract：This paper focuses on the effects of precipitation and vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield in the Jinsha River Basin. Results of regression analysis were taken as input variables to investigate the applicability of the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to simulating annual runoff and sediment yield. Correlation analysis indicates that runoff and sediment yield are positively correlated with the precipitation Indices, while negatively correlated with the vegetation Indices. Furthermore, the results of stepwise regression show that annual precipitation is the most important factor influencing the variation of runoff, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of runoff are 69.8% and 17.3%, respectively. For sediment yield, rainfall erosivity is the most important factor, followed by forest coverage, and their contributions to the variation of sediment yield are 49.3% and 24.2%, respectively. The ANFIS model is of high precision in runoff forecasting, with a relative error of less than 5%, but of poor precision in sediment yield forecasting, indicating that precipitation and vegetation coverage can explain only part of the variation of sediment yield, and that other impact factors, such as human activities, should be sufficiently considered as well.