《Journal of Hydrology》应用SWAT模型和HSPF模型对伊利诺斯河流域进行不确定分析评价和比较研究

作者：Hua Xie, Yanqing Lian

刊物：《Journal of Hydrology》，2013年2月， 481卷，119-131页

关键字：SWAT模型；HSPF模型；率定；不确定性；模型比较

摘要：SWAT模型和水文模拟程序-Fortran(HSPF)模型是两种河流流域模拟模型，它们在流域描述和功能上有相类似的特性。美国伊利诺斯河流域就采用这两个模型工具作为制定管理决策和政策的依据。该研究通过伊利诺斯河的水文数据对两个模型进行了较正和评价，分析了其在水文模拟中的相对性能，并进一步比较了进过校正后的两个模型的响应情况。本研究采用了包括两种多目标和似然不确定估计方法在内的两种不同方法对多站点径流观测数据和使用均等化处理所造成的不确定性进行量化。结果证明两种模型在率定后得到令人满意的结果，而且每个模型参数的确定都的确收到较大的不确定性制约。需要进一步说明的，当预测伊利诺斯河主干流流量时，存在参数集使得HSPF模型比SWAT模型更精确，但当这两个模型在非率定模式下运行时，并在使用似然不确定估计方法率定的情况下，分布式水文模型可以更好地用HSPF模型为蒙特卡罗抽样数据进行总结统计，且比SWAT模型更具多样性，而SWAT和HSPF模型性能是不相上下的。这个研究结果意味着HSPF模型在建模过程获得的精确度更依赖于率定过程的效果，而在缺乏率定数据情况下时应用SWAT模型会更有优势。

Uncertainty-based evaluation and comparison of SWAT and HSPF applications to the Illinois River Basin

Authors: Hua Xie, Yanqing Lian

Journal: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 481, 25 February 2013, Pages 119–131

Key words: SWAT; HSPF; Calibration; Uncertainty; Model comparison

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) are two river basin simulation models with similar scheme of watershed delineation and functionalities. Both have been selected as modeling tools to support decision and policy making in management of the Illinois River Basin, the United States. This paper reports results calibrating and evaluating SWAT and HSPF model to hydrologic data in the Illinois River Basin, with relative performance of two models in hydrologic simulation and model behaviors under calibration being further compared. In this study, two different calibration approaches, the multi-criteria and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method, were used to quantify uncertainties originated from the use of multi-site discharge observations and the presence of equifinal solutions. It is concluded that both models achieved satisfactory performance after the calibration, and the parameter identification of each model was subject to considerable uncertainties. Furthermore, there exist parameter sets that enable the HSPF model to generate more accurate predictions of the discharges in the main stem of the Illinois River than the SWAT model does, but when the two models were run in un-calibrated mode the distributions of the model fit summary statistics for HSPF observed in the Monte Carlo sampling during GLUE calibration are more varied than those for SWAT with heavier tails on the inferior side and SWAT would have comparable performance to HSPF on average. This finding implies that the accuracy that the HSPF model can achieve in a modeling exercise may have more reliance on the efficacy of the calibration procedure, and the application of SWAT may have some advantage when calibration data are lacking or scarce.

原文链接：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169412011109