《Water Science and Engineering》刊登“利用完整建模法评估缺水地区的缺水量及其不确定性”

作者：Shou-ke WEI

刊物：《Water Science and Engineering》，2012, 5(4): 450-463

关键词：缺水量；混合模型；概念水量平衡模型；多元逐步回归分析法；不确定性；北京

摘要： 准确评估缺水地区的缺水量和相对不确定性在水资源管理的各个领域具有战略性的意义。本研究给出了一个完整考虑了概念水平衡模型和经济回归的混合方法，来评估缺水地区的缺水量及其不确定性。这个混合方法被用来评估作为中国极度缺水区域之一的北京农业缺水量。利用多元逐步回归分析法给出了农业需水量的预测模型，并通过比较预测值和观测值对其进行验证。利用情景分析研究农业缺水和农业需水的不确定性。此建模过程可以帮助水管理部门在缺水地区制定可持续的水资源分配政策。

Estimating water deficit and its uncertainties in water-scarce area using integrated modeling approach

Authors： Shou-ke WEI

Journal：Water Science and Engineering ， 2012, 5(4): 450-463

Key Word：water deficit; hybrid model; conceptual water balance model; stepwise multiple regression method; uncertainty; Beijing

Abstract： Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas.

原文链接：http://www.waterjournal.cn:8080/water/EN/abstract/abstract228.shtml