《Environmental and Resource Economics》刊登“货物与损失交易：贸易在气候变化损失分配中的作用”

作者：Oliver Schenker

刊物：《Environmental and Resource Economics》，2013年，54卷第2期，261-282关键词：气候变化；一般均衡效应分解；国际贸易；多区域动态CGE模型

摘要：在世界范围内，气候变化产生的影响存在很大的空间分异性。人们预估气候变化对热带和亚热带地区的影响严重，而对北纬地区影响较轻。但是，任何区域都不是自给自足的，气候变化造成的损失得以借助国际贸易在不同区域间分配。本文利用分区化、气候敏感、动态计算的世界经济一般均衡模型对气候影响的国际“溢出效应”进行研究。选取的全球气候模式的数据表明，当前全世界面临着由气候变化造成的0.6%～2.1%的福利损失。本文还指出，气候变化影响着贸易条款的制定和行业竞争性。通过分解法可确定国际贸易溢出效应的影响范围。溢出效应正面或负面地影响着气候变化造成的总损失。对于那些受气候变化影响小、适应能力强的区域而言，溢出效应只承担气候变化总损失的1/6。

Exchanging Goods and Damages: The Role of Trade on the Distribution of Climate Change Costs

Authors: Oliver Schenker

Journal: Environmental and Resource Economics, Volume54, 2013, Issue 2, pages 261-282

Key words: Climate change；Decomposition of general equilibrium effects；International trade；Multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Abstract: The impacts of climate change vary significantly across world regions. Whereas tropical and subtropical regions are expected to suffer severely from the effects of climate change, the impacts in northern latitudes should remain relatively moderate. However, regions are not self-sufficient, and the costs of climate change can spread across regions through international trade. I study the international spillover of climate impacts within a regionalised, climate-sensitive, dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Using data from a global climate model shows that the world regions face welfare losses between 0.6 and 2.1 % due to climate change. I also show that climate change affects terms of trade and sectoral competitiveness. By means of a decomposition method, the extent of spillover impacts through international trade can be identified. Spillover impacts significantly affect, either positively or negatively, the total costs of climate change for a region. For regions with low exposure to climate change and high adaptive capacities, spillover effects are responsible for a 1/6 of the total cost of climate change.

原文链接：http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-012-9593-z