《Water Resources Management》杂志刊登“干旱地区水资源脆弱性评价动态模型——以中国巴音沟林地区为例”

作者：Guangyang Wu, Lanhai Li, Sajjad Ahmad, Xi Chen, Xiangliang Pan

刊物：《Water Resources Management》 2013年4月

关键词：水资源管理；脆弱性；系统动力学；不同情景

摘要：水资源短缺是许多国家都面临的共同问题，特别是位于干旱地区的国家。由气候变化引起的水资源脆弱性研究是水资源管理领域的一个必然研究焦点。在本研究中，运用SD模型模拟巴音沟林地区（中国的一个县）水资源供需过程，并评价水资源脆弱性现状及未来趋势。运用历史数据对该模型进行率定与验证。同时，调整参数设计了三种情景分别模拟水资源脆弱性变化：1）将污水处理率提高50%；2）每亩灌溉需水量降低20%；3）总供水量提高5%。结果表明基准年的水资源脆弱性很高。农业用水在用水总量中所占比例最大，未来的水资源利用格局将会发生变化。降低农业用水的措施是最有效的降低水资源脆弱性的措施。研究结果同样说明对复杂的供用水系统的管理，SD模型是一种有效的方法。

A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China

Authors: Guangyang Wu, Lanhai Li, Sajjad Ahmad, Xi Chen, Xiangliang Pan

Journal: Water Resources Management，2013.4

Keywords: Water resources management; Vulnerability; System dynamics; Alternative scenarios

Abstract： Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.

原文链接：http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z