《Journal of Hydrologic Engineering》杂志刊登“水文设计重现期和风险不确定性的量化”

作  者：Jose D. Salas, Jun H. Heo,Dong J. Lee, Paolo Burlando

刊  物：《Journal of Hydrologic Engineering》，2013年3月第18卷，第5期，518-526页

摘  要：水工结构通常用风险和不确定性的概念来设计和评估洪水的重现期。本文提出了基于不确定性一阶分析法的估计重现期和风险不确定性的一个基本框架，确定了重现期和风险的方差和矩法、概率加权法、最大似然法。其中最常用的方法是指数和Gumbel分布。并推导出了的重现期的方差函数和风险的方差函数，其中重现期的方差是样本大小N和概率q的函数，风险的方差是N、q、n的函数。结果表明，推导出的风险的方差函数适用范围很广，特别是样本大于50和设计周期小于或等于50的情况。最后运用一个实例来阐述了所提出概念和方程的适用性。

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Return Period and Risk in Hydrologic Design

Authors: Jose D. Salas, Jun H. Heo,Dong J. Lee, Paolo Burlando

Journal: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Volume 18, Issue 5 (May 2013),518–526

Abstract: Concepts of risk and uncertainty are commonly used for designing and evaluating flood-related hydraulic structures. A general framework for estimating the uncertainty of the return period and risk is presented based on first-order analysis of uncertainty for determining the variance of the return period and risk of failure and the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood. The general method is illustrated using the exponential and Gumbel distributions. The derived variance of the return period is a function of the sample size N and the non exceedance probability q , while that of the risk is function of N , q, and design life n .Simulation experiments were performed to analyze the behavior of the variance of risk for various values of N, q, and n. They showed that the derived variances of the risk can be applicable for a wide range of conditions, particularly for sample sizes bigger than 50 and design lives smaller or equal to 50. An example is included to illustrate the applicability of the proposed concepts and equations.

原文链接：http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HE.1943-5584.0000613