《Water Resources Research》刊登“运用观测-模拟框架区分水短缺与干旱”

作者：A. F. Van Loon, H. A. J. Van Lanen

刊物：Water Resources Research，2013年，49卷，第三期，页码：1483–1502

关键词：水短缺；水文气象站；水文模型模拟；异常值分析

摘要：“干旱”是一种自然灾害，它主要是由大范围的气候变化引起的，而且不能通过当地的水资源管理来预防。“水短缺”指的是长期水资源的非可持续利用，容易受到水资源管理者的影响。区分干旱与水短缺区具有重要的意义，因为这两种情况通常会同时发生。在本文中，我们提出了一种实测-模拟的框架来区分自然（干旱）及人类（水短缺）对水文系统的影响。这个框架的基础是运用水文模型来模拟不受人类活动干扰下的自然状态。随后，也是更加重要和具有创新性的一步，通过两个时间序列的对比确定异常水文情势（例如超出临界阈值）。我们将这一观测-模拟框架应用于西班牙瓜迪亚纳河上游流域。应用次框架对1980-2000年的情况进行模拟，结果表明在水文系统中地下水抽取的影响是干旱影响的四倍。水短缺的产生是由于冬季汛期的消失，即使在相对较湿的年份亦如此，同时水短缺也与地下水存在非线性相关性。该观察-模拟框架能够帮助在用水压力较大区域的水资源管理者量化短期内干旱与水短缺的相对影响，因此，做决定时可以考虑到适应干旱以及改善水短缺的情况。

Making the distinction between water scarcity and drought using an observation-modeling framework

Authors: A. F. Van Loon, H. A. J. Van Lanen

Journal: Water Resources Research, Volume 49, Issue 3, pages 1483–1502, March 2013

Keywords: Water scarcity; drought; hydrometeorological observations; hydrological modelling; anomaly analysis

 Drought and water scarcity are keywords for river basin management in water-stressed regions. “Drought” is a natural hazard, caused by large-scale climatic variability, and cannot be prevented by local water management. “Water scarcity” refers to the long-term unsustainable use of water resources, which water managers can influence. Making the distinction between drought and water scarcity is not trivial, because they often occur simultaneously. In this paper, we propose an observation-modeling framework to separate natural (drought) and human (water scarcity) effects on the hydrological system. The basis of the framework is simulation of the situation that would have occurred without human influence, the “naturalized” situation, using a hydrological model. The resulting time series of naturalized state variables and fluxes are then compared to observed time series. As second, more important and novel step, anomalies (i.e., deviations from a threshold) are determined from both time series and compared. We demonstrate the use of the proposed observation-modeling framework in the Upper-Guadiana catchment in Spain. Application of the framework to the period 1980–2000 shows that the impact of groundwater abstraction on the hydrological system was, on average, four times as high as the impact of drought. Water scarcity resulted in disappearance of the winter high-flow period, even in relatively wet years, and a nonlinear response of groundwater. The proposed observation-modeling framework helps water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the relative impact of drought and water scarcity on a transient basis and, consequently, to make decisions regarding adaptation to drought and combating water scarcity.

原文链接：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wrcr.20147/abstract