《Water Resources Management》刊登“面向主体模型在解决水事冲突中的应用”

作者：Masih Akhbari, Neil S. Grigg

刊物：Water Resources Management，2013年9月，27卷第11期，4039-4052页

关键词：基于主体建模，冲突管理，三角洲游戏，圣华金河流域

摘要：用水竞争不断增加，引发了许多复杂水资源管理系统的利益冲突。科学的系统模型，对于创建性能和其他决策信息是必不可少的，同时还需要模型来模拟竞争各方的意见，以帮助解决或缓解冲突。基于主体的模型（ABM）为填补这个角色带来了希望，本文中介绍了一种基于主体模型的新的思路，用于模拟各方参与冲突下的行为与交互，这个模型的思路源自一个游戏。为了研究这个框架，我们将加州萨克拉门托-圣华金三角洲地区的水问题作为一个长系列情景，重点突出圣华金河流域。但是，该思路也适应于其他流域及更为复杂的系统。ABM解释了各方之间的相互作用，以及鼓励他们如何合作以达到最终解决方案。该模型还能让决策者测试管理方案，搞清楚他们各种决策下对于利益相关者及其行为所产生的影响。

A Framework for an Agent-Based Model to Manage Water Resources Conflicts

Authors：Masih Akhbari, Neil S. Grigg

Journal：Water Resources Management ,September 2013, Volume 27, Issue 11, pp 4039-4052

keywords：Agent-based modeling，Conflict management，The Delta game，The San Joaquin watershed

Abstract：Competition for use of water is increasing and leads to many conflicts among competing interests with complex goals and water management systems. Technical system models are essential to create performance and other decision information, but models to simulate views of the competing parties are also needed to help resolve or mitigate conflicts. Agent-based models (ABMs) offer promise to fill this role, and in this study a new approach to agent-based modeling is introduced to simulate the behavior and interactions of the parties participating in a conflict scenario, which is modeled as a game. To develop this framework, we considered water issues of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region as an example of a long-standing situation, with emphasis on the San Joaquin watershed. However, this approach can be used in other watersheds and more complex systems. The ABM explains the interactions among the parties and how they can be encouraged to cooperate in the game to work toward a solution. The model also enables decision-makers to test management scenarios and understand the consequences of their decisions on different stakeholders and their behaviors.

原文链接：http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11269-013-0394-0