《World Development》刊登“干旱与人口流动”

作者：Clark Gray, Valerie Mueller 

刊物：《World Development》，2012年，40卷第1期，134-145页

关键词：人口流动；移民；干旱；非洲；埃塞俄比亚

摘要：人们普遍认为气候变化可能引起发展中国家的人口流动，但很少有研究真正调查过由气候变化引起的人口迁移。本文利用历史方法以及埃塞俄比亚高原农村的特殊纵向数据，研究了10年期间干旱对埃塞俄比亚人口迁移的影响。结果显示，随着干旱发生，劳动力迁移数量在逐渐增加。对于没有土地的家庭更是如此，其受干旱的影响也最大。然而随着干旱的发生，因婚姻而选择迁移的女性人数却在减少。这一发现表明，人们正从不同方面逐渐适应变化的环境。

Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia

Authors: Clark Gray, Valerie Mueller 

Journal: World Development, Volume40, 2012, Issue 1, pages 134-145

Key words: population mobility; migration; drought; climate; Africa; Ethiopia

Summary: Significant attention has focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large populations in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have investigated climate-induced migration. We use event history methods and a unique longitudinal dataset from the rural Ethiopian highlands to investigate the effects of drought on population mobility over a 10-year period. The results indicate that men’s labor migration increases with drought and that land-poor households are the most vulnerable. However, marriage-related moves by women also decrease with drought. These findings suggest a hybrid narrative of environmentally-induced migration that recognizes multiple dimensions of adaptation to environmental change.

原文链接: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X11001537