《Journal of Hydrology》刊登“基于综合缺水指数的伊朗西北部气象干旱分析”

作者：Rasoul Mirabbasia, Emmanouil N. Anagnostoub, Ahmad Fakheri-Farda, Yagob Dinpashoha, Saeid Eslamianc

刊物：《Journal of Hydrologys》，2013年，492卷，35-48页

关键词：干旱；Copula；综合干旱指数；多元分析；伊朗

摘要：干旱概率估计与预测对制订抗旱减灾策略具有重要意义。本文选取伊朗西北部分布均匀的50个观测站的1970～2007年的月降水数据，利用综合缺水指数（JDI）评价了该区域的干旱条件。结果显示，综合缺水指数能够系统评估并反映区域内的短期干旱和长期干旱。此外，此方法可为预测未来几个月内（本文考虑1～3个月）的降水量以及这一降水量的超越概率提供参考。利用该区域内其余6年（不在1970～2007年之间）的降水数据验证了综合缺水指数的有效性。结果显示，未来1个月的降水量预测的临界成功指数为0.61。本文利用月降水数据以及由其计算的综合缺水指数评估了区域干旱条件，可为此方法的推广应用提供参考。

Analysis of meteorological drought in northwest Iran using the Joint Deficit Index

Authors: Rasoul Mirabbasia, Emmanouil N. Anagnostoub, Ahmad Fakheri-Farda, Yagob Dinpashoha, Saeid Eslamianc

Journal: Irrigation and Drainage Systems, Volume492, 2013, pages 35-48

Key words: Drought; Copula; Joint Deficit Index; Multivariate analysis; Iran

Summary: Probabilistic assessment and prediction of drought provides valuable information for water resources planners and policy makers for developing drought mitigation strategies. In this study an evaluation of drought conditions in northwest of Iran was performed by means of the Joint Deficit Index (JDI). Monthly precipitation data from 1970 to 2007 based on 50 gauge stations uniformly distributed across the area were used for calculating the JDI. Results show that the JDI provides a comprehensive assessment of droughts and that it is capable of reflecting both emerging and prolonged droughts reported in the data. Furthermore, the method provides a basis for determining the amount of precipitation required to reach normal conditions in future months (1–3 months examined in this study), and the exceedance probability of this precipitation amount. Performance evaluation based on 6 years of independent precipitation data from the region showed Critical Success Index of 0.61 (0.64) for the 1-month (3-month) ahead prediction of the drought conditions. The analysis in this study indicated a good skill in predicting the evolution of drought conditions for the region based on JDI evaluated from monthly precipitation data.

原文链接: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413003028