《Journal of Energy Engineering 》杂志刊登“中东地区的气候变化与水电规划：伊朗Karkheh水电系统的启示”

作  者：Saeed Jamali, Ahmad Abrishamchi, Kaveh Madani

刊  物：《Journal of Energy Engineering 》，第139卷第3期（2013年9月），153–160页

关键词：气候变化，水力发电，运行，模拟，建模，适应，Karkheh流域，伊朗

摘  要：鉴于水力发电在用电高峰管理中的重要作用，中东国家正在通过修建大坝积极寻求更多的水电资源开发。尽管如此，预计气候变化会通过影响地区水文循环和不同的气候变量来影响未来水力发电量。发达国家采取措施减小气候变化对水电站生产量的影响，发展中国家亦可受益。水电项目开展之前和开展期间，气候变化影响的研究有利于及时作出反应并尽可能节约成本适应气候变化。本文研究了Karkheh流域（伊朗第三大流域）气候变化对水电系统生产力的潜在影响。开发了一个模拟模型来探讨未来水力发电量随着代表中东流域地区的气候变化改变的程度。研究结果表明，基于历史气候条件的现有运行规则和设计规范会导致流域中水力发电运行的低效率。因为短期内径流的减少可忽略，近期水力发电量不会发生较大的变化。然而，水力发电严重赤字可能会出现在Karkheh流域的中长期。因此，适应未来气候变化、改变运行方式、修订设计规范对于流域中水力发电运行优化至关重要。

Climate Change and Hydropower planning in the Middle East: Implications for Iran’s Karkheh Hydropower Systems

Authors: Saeed Jamali, Ahmad Abrishamchi, Kaveh Madani

Journal: Journal of Energy Engineering, Volume 139, Issue 3 (September 2013) , 153–160

Key words: Climate change, Hydropower, Operations, Simulation, Modeling, Adaptation, Karkheh River Basin, Iran

Abstract: Given the important role of hydropower in peak electricity management, Middle Eastern countries are actively pursuing development of more hydropower resources by construction of large dams. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to affect the future productivity of hydropower by influencing the hydrologic cycle and different climate variables in the region. Although reactive plans to minimize climate change impacts on hydropower production have been implemented in the developed world, the developing world can still benefit from proactive actions. Studies of climate change impacts before and during implementation of hydropower projects can result in timely responses and adaptation to climate change with a potential of considerable cost savings. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the hydropower systems in the Karkheh River Basin—the third largest river basin in Iran—in terms of potential for hydroelectricity generation. A simulation model is developed to examine how hydropower generation levels vary for different future climate change scenarios in this representative Middle Eastern basin. The obtained results suggest that the existing operation rules and design specifications, developed based on the historical climatic conditions, can lead to inefficient operations of the hydropower in the basin. Because of insignificant stream flow reductions in the short term, hydropower production may not change considerably in the near future. However, a serious hydropower generation deficit is expected in the midterm and long-term horizons in the Karkheh River Basin. Therefore, adaptation to the future climate change conditions and revision of the operation rule curves and design specifications are essential to optimal hydropower operations in this basin.

原文链接：http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29EY.1943-7897.0000115