《Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics》杂志刊登“一个预测桥梁抗震恢复力的概率方法”

作者：Alberto Decò；Paolo Bocchini；Dan M. Frangopol

刊物：《Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics》，2013年，42卷第10期，1469—1487页

关键词：概率恢复力；地震灾害；桥梁；恢复；成本；决策分析

摘要：本文提出了一种可以在桥梁经受地震前后进行抗震恢复力评估的概率方法，该方法的不确定性因素包括预期损伤、恢复过程以及重建成本。脆性性能的概率性方法可以评估一次地震动造成桥梁的不同（无、轻度、中度、大部分、完全）损坏水平。随后，用一个基于正弦函数的六参数概率函数来描述桥梁性能的时程变化。基于不同的震害水平，决策者可以通过结构性能水平做出经济允许、震后重建合理预算的宽泛方案。通过基于拉丁超立方抽样的蒙特卡洛模拟研究了可能的修复方案，从而解释了结构所需的抗震水平、直接成本和间接成本。恢复力参数的敏感性分析表明了参数是如何影响恢复力评价和地震响应的。最后，将本文提出的概率方法成功应用于加州Corona 和 Murrieta两城市间的一个公路桥上。

A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges

Authors: Alberto Decò；Paolo Bocchini；Dan M. Frangopol

Journal: Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Volume 42, Issue 10, pages1469-1487, August2013

Key words: probabilistic resilience; seismic hazard; bridge; recovery; cost; decision analysis

Abstract: This paper proposes a probabilistic approach for the pre-event assessment of seismic resilience of bridges, including uncertainties associated with expected damage, restoration process, and rebuilding/rehabilitation costs. A fragility analysis performs the probabilistic evaluation of the level of damage (none, slight, moderate, extensive, and complete) induced on bridges by a seismic event. Then, a probabilistic six-parameter sinusoidal-based function describes the bridge functionality over time. Depending on the level of regional seismic hazard, the level of performance that decision makers plan to achieve, the allowable economic impact, and the available budget for post-event rehabilitation activities, a wide spectrum of scenarios are provided. Possible restoration strategies accounting for the desired level of resilience and direct and indirect costs are investigated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analyses show how the recovery parameters affect the resilience assessment and seismic impact. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to an existing highway bridge located along a segment of I-15, between the cities of Corona and Murrieta, in California. 

原文链接：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eqe.2282/abstract