《Journal of Hydrology》杂志刊登“智利气候变化对高山分水岭的影响：新模型预测能否改变现状？”

作者：E.M.C. Demariaa, E.P. Maurer, B. Thrasher, S. Vicuña, F.J. Meza

期刊：《水文学杂志》，2013年10月10日，502期，128-138页

关键字：气候变化；径流频率分析；水文模拟；降水；融雪

摘要：由于全球气候变暖，智利中部的气候在21世纪也会经历巨大的变化，包括降水量下降，早期径流达到峰值，更大比例以雨的形式的降水。本研究利用工程耦合模型的第三阶段（简称CIMP3）和第五阶段（CIMP5）中大气环流模型的12个研究因子来评价气候变化对南美洲智利中部马塔奎托流域水文的影响。利用可变入渗能力水文模型预测了未来更为干燥和温暖的气候，会使雪线向更高海拔转移，并会减少以降雪的形式降水的天数。此外，极端降水和径流事件将会更为频繁的发生，然而在温暖的月份低流量的情况会更为严峻。研究还表明，到21世纪末水文状态和通量的平均值变化有很强的统计学意义，但方差变化没有发现存在统计学意义。最后，利用CMIP3和CMIP5预测气候变化对水文的影响，两个阶段预测结果没有区别。

Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile ：Do new model projections change the story？

Authors: E.M.C. Demariaa, E.P. Maurer, B. Thrasher, S. Vicuña, F.J. Meza

Journal : Journal of Hydrology, Volume 502, 10 October 2013, Pages 128–138

Keywords: Climate change; Stream flow frequency analysis; Hydrological modeling; Precipitation; Snow melting

Abstract: Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier stream flow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mata Quito river basin in central Chile, South America. Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. Extreme precipitation and stream flow events are expected to become more frequent. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology.

文章来源：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413006148