《Journal of Hydrology》杂志刊登：“利用经济概念解决伊朗、摩洛哥和沙特阿拉伯地区未来水资源供需失衡问题”

作者：Petra Hellegers, Walter Immerzeel, Peter Droogers

期刊：《水文学杂志》，2013年10月10日，502期，62-67页

关键字：经济概念；水资源供需曲线；气候变化

摘要：在中东和北非国家，可再生地下水和地表水的供应是有限的，而对水的需求正在快速增长，同时气候变化将会进一步加大对水的需求。本研究的主要目的是通过一个水文模型来评价伊朗、摩洛哥和沙特阿拉伯地区2040-2050年在干燥、适中和湿润气候下水资源供需失衡状况，同时基于水资源的边际成本和边际价值综合调整供给方和需求方来寻求解决不平衡的最优方案。研究利用水资源供需曲线寻求用水量提高导致供水边际成本增加的临界值。研究结果表明，在未来所有除了伊朗湿润气候情况下，需水量都应大量的减少以缓解水资源供需失衡的压力，目前这种状况已经发生了。

Economic concepts to address future water supply–demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

Authors: Petra Hellegers, Walter Immerzeel, Peter Droogers

Journal: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 502, 10 October 2013, Pages 62–67

Keywords: Economic concepts; Water supply and demand curves; Climate change

Abstract: In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia in 2040–2050 under dry, average and wet climate change projections and to show on the basis of the marginal cost and marginal value of water the optimum mix of supply-side and demand-side adjustments to address the imbalance. A hydrological model has been used to estimate the water supply–demand imbalance. Water supply and demand curves have been used to explore for which (marginal value of) water usage the marginal cost of supply-enhancement becomes too expensive. The results indicate that in the future in all cases, except in Iran under the wet climate projection, the quantity of water demanded has to be reduced considerably to address the imbalance, which is indeed what is currently happening already.

文章来源：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413006112