《Journal of Hydrology》杂志刊登：“加州气候变暖导致洪水等级增大的研究”

期刊：《水文学杂志》，2013年9月25日，501期，101-110页

作者：Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, David W. Pierce, Michael D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan 

关键字：气候变化；统计降尺度；洪水风险；内华达山脉

摘要：基于一组包括16个全球性气候模型的降尺度水文模型预测表明在内华达山脉的西部地区洪水变化将更为剧烈，数据主要来源于加州的水管理系统。而在不考虑平均降水量变化的情况下，这16个气候模型预测表明在SRES A2情景下，到21世纪末温室气体排放的增加将导致内华达山脉的北部地区和南部地区会产生更大的洪水。和历史数据相比，该模型预测内华达山脉北部地区的50年一遇的洪水将增加30-90%，南部地区增加50-100%。由于自然变化，在SRES A2情境下， 2035年模拟的50年一遇洪水（置信区间为95%）将会比预期要高。

Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates

Authors: Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, David W. Pierce, Michael D. Dettinger, Daniel R. Cayan

Journal: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 501, 25 September 2013, Pages 101–110  

Keywords: Climate change; Statistical downscaling; Flood risk; Sierra Nevada

Abstract：Downscaled and hydrologically modeled projections from an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models suggest that flooding may become more intense on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains, the primary source for California’s managed water system. By the end of the 21st century, all 16 climate projections for the high greenhouse-gas emission SRES A2 scenario yield larger floods with return periods ranging 2–50 years for both the Northern Sierra Nevada and Southern Sierra Nevada, regardless of the direction of change in mean precipitation. By end of century, discharges from the Northern Sierra Nevada with 50-year return periods increase by 30–90% depending on climate model, compared to historical values. Corresponding flood flows from the Southern Sierra increase by 50–100%. The increases in simulated 50 year flood flows are larger (at 95% confidence level) than would be expected due to natural variability by as early as 2035 for the SRES A2 scenario.

文章来源：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413005696