《Journal of Hydroinformatics》上刊登的“使用多目标遗传算法优化年内调节水库单库调度规则”

作者：Kim T, Heo J, Bae D, et al

刊物：《Journal of Hydroinformatics》,2008年,10卷,第2期, 163-179页

关键词：频率分析；多目标遗传算法；调度规则；水库库容的概率预报

摘要：本研究为水库单库调度开发了一种月尺度的调度规则。借助时间序列模型AR(1)生成了超过100年的人工长系列径流过程，通过隐随机优化方法得到了包含4-5条线段的分段线性调度规则。考虑到水库调度过程中的多目标函数特性，本研究选用一种多目标遗传算法(NSGA-II)来进行优化计算。本研究通过对历史数据进行频率分析详细地论证了NSGA-II算法的搜索空间，此外还研究了入流和约束条件之间的关系。研究发现，4以及5段是分段线性调度规则的最优段数，并且还评估了NSGA-II的随机种子数的影响效果。文章使用6年的历史入流数据作为模拟模型的输入数据，计算结果显示本研究得到的调度规则适用于不同的入流序列，因此，通过水库库容的概率预报可以使得调度操作员能够对水库的当前状态进行定量评估。

Single-reservoir operating rules for a year using multiobjective genetic algorithm

Authors：Kim T, Heo J, Bae D, et al

Journal：Journal of Hydroinformatics, 2008, 10(2): 163-179.

Key Words：frequency analysis, multiobjective genetic algorithm, operating rules, probabilistic reservoir storage forecast

Abstract： A monthly operating rule for single-reservoir operation is developed in this study. Synthetic inflow data over 100 years are generated by using a time series model, AR(1), and piecewise-linear operating rules consisting of 4 and 5 linear lines are found using the implicit stochastic optimization method. In order to consider multiobjective functions in reservoir system operation, a multiobjective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) is adopted to obtain the optimization results. The search space of NSGA-II is carefully refined using frequency analysis of historical data, and the relationship between inflow and constraints is also investigated. It is determined that 4 and 5 segments are the optimal number of segments for the piecewise-linear operating rule, and the effect of random number seeding on NSGA-II is evaluated. Six years of historical inflow data are used for the simulation model and the results show that the developed operating rule would handle various inflow series. As a result, probabilistic reservoir storage forecasts can be provided to a system operator so as to enable the operator to evaluate the current status of a reservoir quantitatively.

原文链接：http://www.iwaponline.com/jh/010/jh0100163.htm