《Hydrological Processes》杂志刊登“利用全球水文模型模拟当前全球河流径流:模型修正、验证和灵敏度分析 ”

作者：Joo Heon Lee, Chang Joo Kim

刊物：Hydrological Processes ，2013年3月30日，25卷7期，1129–1145页

关键词：全球水文模型（GHM）；径流模拟；水资源；校验；灵敏度分析；潜在蒸发

摘要：全球水文模型（GHMS ）模拟地表大陆尺度的河流流域的水文动态。这里我们描述了一个这样的GHM ——宏观尺度概率分布式水分模型09 （MAC - PDM.09 ）。该模型在最后一次应用于水文文献之后，已经进行了一些修改。本文旨在提供最新版本的模型的详细说明。修改的主要内容包括以下三个方面：（1）该模型能够被重复n次运行，从而具备了更强大的估计极端水文事件的能力，（2）使用网格字段的日降雨量变异系数（ CV ），将月降水量随机分解成日降水量，（3）模型现在不仅可以执行每月输入的气候数据，也可以执行每日输入的气候数据。我们论证了每一次修改与之前应用的版本相比，对模拟径流的效果。重要的是我们发现，相对于执行每日输入的数据，当MAC PDM.09执行每月输入的数据时，会导致负径流偏差，这是因为在全球范围内日相对湿度的变化要高。在选定的小流域，径流偏差可高达-80%，但绝对幅度的偏差可能很小。正因如此，我们推荐使用Mac-PDM.09，并它执行每月输入的数据的偏差作为模型的限制偏差。Mac PDM.09的性能是通过对50个已知径流过程的流域进行径流模拟验证来评估的。我们所提出的敏感性分析表明，与土壤水分和田间持水量参数的扰动相比，模拟径流对PE计算方法要敏感的多。

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Authors: Simon N. Gosling, Nigel W. Arnell

Journal: Hydrological Processes, Volume 25, Issue 7, pages 1129–1145, 30 March 2011

Keywords: global hydrological model (GHM); runoff simulation; water resources; validation; sensitivity analysis; potential evaporation

Abstract：Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale—Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to − 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

原文链接： http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.7727/abstract