《 Journal of Hydrology》杂志刊登：“利用不确定分析法和地下水测量来提高河流水量平衡的置信度”

作者: R. Adams, J.F. Costelloe, A.W. Western, B. George

期刊：《水文学杂志》，2013年10月30日，503期：209-221页

关键字：水量平衡；蒙特卡罗法；水文梯度；水文数据；浅层地下水（非承压地下水）

摘要：通常，较好的了解河流的水量平衡是水资源管理的基础。通过彻底了解水量平衡分析过程所有不确定水量的来源有助于有效利用水量平衡方法，也可通过说明水量平衡剩余项的准确性的附加信息或独立信息来进一步了解该方法。本研究利用蒙特卡罗法来估计澳大利亚东南部一个纵向河道的水量平衡，并确定所有不确定水量的来源，研究假定水量平衡剩余项是指地下水和河流之间的通量。研究将无资料支流的短期监测资料和地下水水头资料用于进一步测试水量平衡主要项目估计中误差和方差的置信水平。对水量平衡分析得到以下几点结论：首先，进一步分辨上游集水区连续河段误差的主要来源，可用于检测基础设施的建设，以最大限度减少水量平衡中最大误差的来源；其次，利用降雨径流模型模拟无径流资料地区的流量对利用具有代表性的可利用测量数据来描述据常年间歇连续的子流域流态过程很敏感；最后，对水量平衡的剩余项代表净地下水通量的假设的评估，可通过对地下水头差数据在时间上的变化和水量平衡剩余项的比较提供独立的评估方法。

Using uncertainty analysis and groundwater measurements to improve the confidence of river water balance estimates

Authors: R. Adams, J.F. Costelloe, A.W. Western, B. George

Journal: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 503, 30 October 2013, Pages 209–221

Keywords: Water balance; Monte Carlo; Hydrologic gradients; Hydrometric data; Unconfined groundwater

Abstract: An improved understanding of water balances of rivers is fundamental in water resource management. Effective use of a water balance approach requires thorough identification of sources of uncertainty around all terms in the analysis and can benefit from additional, independent information that can be used to interpret the accuracy of the residual term of a water balance. We use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate a longitudinal river channel water balance and to identify its sources of uncertainty for a regulated river in south-eastern Australia, assuming that the residual term of this water balance represents fluxes between groundwater and the river. Additional information from short term monitoring of ungauged tributaries and groundwater heads is used to further test our confidence in the estimates of error and variance for the major components of this water balance. We identify the following conclusions from the water balance analysis. First, improved identification of the major sources of error in consecutive reaches of a catchment can be used to support monitoring infrastructure design to best reduce the largest sources of error in a water balance. Second, estimation of ungauged inflow using rainfall–runoff modelling is sensitive to the representativeness of available gauged data in characterising the flow regime of sub-catchments along a perennial to intermittent continuum. Lastly, comparison of temporal variability of stream-groundwater head difference data and a residual water balance term provides an independent means of assessing the assumption that the residual term represents net stream-groundwater fluxes.

文章来源：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413006549

翻译：王丽婷 ；  校核：刘淼