《Journal of Hydrology》杂志刊登：“基于马萨诸塞州流域特征预测水文变化的研究”

作者：Elizabeth S. Homa, Casey Brown, Kevin McGarigal, Bradley W. Compton, Scott D. Jackson

期刊：《水文学杂志》，2013年10月30日，503期：196-208页

关键字：水文变化；生态赤字；生态系统评价；流量历时曲线；多元回归模型；土地利用

摘要：众所周知，人类活动对水循环有很大的影响。本文重点研究人类发展对哪些水生生态系统具有决定性影响，人类活动的影响机制，以及对不同类型和地理位置的流域影响程度。本文提出采用利用数理统计的方法来寻求人类活动对流域的改造和所产生的的影响之间的关系，而不是采用复杂的物理模型对每一个流域进行模拟。研究开发了一套多元线性回归模型，采用主成分分析法从一系列自然和人为改变后的流域特征中选择独立变量，预测当前的河流变化情况。研究利用没有改变的模拟径流来预测天然径流的状态，并且采用生态系统评价指标来区分天然径流和改造河流的区别。模型模拟结果表明，水库库容、用水量和排水量、土地利用都会对河流流量产生影响，并且面源土地利用的改变，例如不透水面积增大，会潜在增大低流量的概率。该方法促进了我们进一步了解人类改造河流和径流变化之间的关系，同时，该模型的发展可能会用来估计无测站站点径流的变化情况。

Estimating hydrologic alteration from basin characteristics in Massachusetts

Authors: Elizabeth S. Homa, Casey Brown, Kevin McGarigal, Bradley W. Compton, Scott D. Jackson

Journal: Journal of Hydrology, Volume 503, 30 October 2013, Pages 196–208

Keywords: Hydrologic alteration; Ecodeficit; Ecochange; Flow duration curve; Multivariate regression models; Land use

Abstract: It is clear that humans are impacting the water cycle. There is interest in both determining where and how aquatic systems are most impacted by human development, and in determining the types and locations of basin modifications that are having the most impact. Instead of complex physical models of individual basins, we propose the use of a statistical approach to look at the relationship between human basin modifications and the resulting impacts on streamflow. We develop a set of multiple linear regression models, using principal component analysis to guide independent variable selection, to estimate current, altered streamflow from a full range of both natural and anthropogenic basin characteristics. Natural streamflow is then estimated by simulating basins with no alterations, and the difference between the natural and altered streamflow are summarized by use of the ecochange percent metric. The model suggests that dam storage, water withdrawals and discharges, and land use all impact stream flow and non-point source land use modifications such as impervious cover are potentially increasing low flows. The approach provides an opportunity to increase our understanding of the relation between human basin modifications and changes in streamflow. The model developed could potentially be used to estimate streamflow alteration at ungaged sites.

文献来源：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413006537?np=y

翻译：王丽婷；   校核：刘淼