《Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management》杂志刊登“以埃塞俄比亚为例，介绍用于水电工程的灵活设计策略的筛选模型”

作  者：Jonathan Baker, Paul Block, Kenneth Strzepek, de Neufville Richard

刊  物：《Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management》，2013年10月12日印刷

关键词：筛选模型; 灵活设计 ;水电工程

摘  要：水资源效益中长期价格变动可能会极大地影响一个工程的价值，但是传统的流域规划方法不能充分考虑这些不确定因素。此外，最近的适应性管理方法不能提供系统性的指导。基于上述问题，本文提出了一种通过去除不利因素并利用有利时机来增加项目期望值的灵活设计方法，该方法适合流域规划人员使用。并考虑采用筛选模型确定最灵活的设计机遇和策略。接着采用此模型探讨未来电价的不确定性影响因素，以埃塞俄比亚的某水电站为例进行了分析。最后利用价格变化校正得到的二项式点阵模型，开发了可能的价格路径，此筛选模型有两个用途：（1）确定最灵活的施工顺序；（2）对最灵活的施工顺序进行评价。方案的评估可采用预期净现值，资本支出和评估采用累积分布函数。研究结果表明，最灵活的施工顺序的预期净现值增长了将近2%。此外，累积分布函数曲线分可以确定在不确定性（如价格）问题上出现失误时，项目明显低估或高估的情况。因此，利用筛选模型评估水资源基础设施投资中的不确定性是本文研究的重点。

Power of Screening Models for Developing Flexible Design Strategies in Hydropower Projects: Case Study of Ethiopia

Authors: Jonathan Baker, Paul Block, Kenneth Strzepek, de Neufville Richard

Journal: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Published: 12 October 2013

Key words: screening model；flexible design; hydropower projects

Abstract: Long-term price changes in water resources benefits may greatly affect a projects' value, however the traditional approach to river basin planning has not been able to take full account of these uncertainties. Additionally, the relatively recent approach of adaptive management does not provide much systematic guidance for planners. We propose an approach that allows planners of river basins to incorporate flexibility into the design, to enable them to increase the expected value of these projects by avoiding untimely elements, and taking advantage of favorable opportunities. This paper considers the application of a mid-fidelity screening model to identify flexible design opportunities and strategies. We adopt such a model to explore the impacts of future electricity price uncertainty on a proposed system of hydroelectric dams in Ethiopia. Using possible price paths developed from a binomial lattice model calibrated on price variability, the screening model is used to (1) identify the most flexible construction sequence for building the dams and (2) to value various options exercised on the most flexible construction sequence. Scenarios are evaluated using the criteria of expected net present value, capital expenditure and assessed using cumulative distribution functions. Results indicate that the best option increases the expected net present value of the most flexible construction sequence by nearly 2 %. Furthermore, the cumulative distribution function curve analysis demonstrates how a failure to consider uncertainties such as price may result in a significant under or over evaluation of the project. Thus, this study highlights the value of a systematic approach using a mid-fidelity screening model to assess the uncertainties present in water resource infrastructure investments.

原文链接：http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29WR.1943-5452.0000417